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Last week, I posted my informed take on what John Podesta, Valerie Jarrett, and the rest of transition gang were going to do for the local real estate market. Would the Obama transition bring in a bunch of new home buyers, or not?

Today, I spotted this opinion from Evers & Company agent Patricia Kennedy. “Here’s how it really works,” writes Kennedy, who then provides her rundown.

  • Of the people leaving government, many will stay put and take jobs in local law firms and consulting outfits – in or out of government, these people have expertise that is more marketable here than almost anywhere else in the country. These folks will not move, at least not because of the election.
  • Many of the people taking political jobs with the new administration are here already. They’ve spent the last eight years working at law and consulting firms waiting for the Democrats to take back the White House, and they are in stong demand because they understand how things get done. They are not going to be buying houses because they already live here.
  • Of the people moving here, a lot of them are going to be young and are likely to prefer renting a room in a group house in Adams Morgan to paying a mortgage on a condo or house.
  • The people moving here with families are often in no position to buy. Prices are high, and government salaries are not. So they often rent, at least initially.
  • There are even stories of members of congress who team up to share basement apartments on Capitol Hill because they can’t afford a decent house or apartment. Even Barak Obama rented a dingy junior 1-bedroom while he was a Senator. Last night on 60-Minutes, his wife, Michelle, said she couldn’t stand to sleep there, so they stayed in a hotel when she was in town.

Yes, there will be a few sales, probably in the District or the very close-in suburbs. But my experience with most administrations is that they are populated by a bunch of young workaholics who do not exactly aspire to gracious living. They live in their offices and eat most of their meals from take-out bags or at receptions thrown by trade associations.