Yesterday’s Washington Post poll left every candidate but frontrunner Vince Gray straining for a cheerful take on their numbers. Even Reta Lewis, who came in behind everyone but long shot Christian Carter, has a positive gloss on it. Fortunately, the Post‘s website also offers some more demographic data that’s more resistant to spin.
As an African-American woman, Muriel Bowser should in theory have some appeal to that demographic, but Gray leads among African-American women in the poll with 33 percent. Bowser comes in a distant second with 15 percent, practically tied with Vincent Orange at 14 percent.
Twenty-six percent of white women, meanwhile, chose Tommy Wells, putting him ahead among that demographic.
Evans of the River
Gray wins wards 7 and 8 easily, with a combined 34 percent of the vote. What’s more interesting is that Evans, the very essence of a white Georgetown guy, comes in second with 15 percent. Bowser, meanwhile, pulled only 10 percent in the mostly African-American wards. Evans tells LL that he’s “very heartened” that he beat Bowser on the eastern side of the Anacostia.
While campaigning in wards 7 and 8 is paying off for Evans, it isn’t for Wells and Busboys & Poets owner Andy Shallal. Wells only brought in 2 percent of respondents in those wards, while Shallal received 0 percent.
If Evans is taking votes from Gray, he’s also missing out on his own base: rich dudes! With 23 percent of the vote, Wells is the candidate of choice for people making more than $100,000, while Evans comes in fourth behind Gray and Bowser with 13 percent.
David Catania may be the only mayoral hopeful to get unvarnished good news out of the poll, with respondents putting him at a near-tie with Gray in the general election. Digging down into the data looks even more promising for Catania, who not only beats Gray among non-Democratic voters with 44 percent but only trails Gray 49 percent to 38 percent among Democrats.
Catania repeats the pattern when it comes to voters’ race, winning 55 percent of white voters to Gray’s 23 percent but losing African-American voters to Gray, 57 percent to 28 percent.
Photo by Darrow Montgomery